Je suis tombé sur une petite réflexion en deux temps sur les techniques d’estimation et les biais possibles lorsqu’on demande à quelqu’un d’estimer quelque chose (que ça soit la durée d’une tâche ou la proportion de développeurs Sharepoint qui ont une voiture jaune).

Voici les conclusions de l’article, mais je vous invite à le lire au complet, le petit exercice est intéressant à faire :-)

What you should take away from this exercise is that when asked to estimate on something you are uncertain about, make your initial estimate. Then, pretend you are in the game show and you have to pick between this estimate and the marble. If you feel that you would take the marble over your estimate, increase the width of your range until you feel that it doesn’t matter which option you pick.

Conversely, if you are one of the wimps who are under confident, then reduce the width of your range, until you feel that you have no particular preference of your estimate vs. the marbles.

In the same way that reframing a problem led from something being unquantifiable to something that indeed had a upper and lower range, by reframing the estimate against a unambiguous probability such as a bag of 10 marbles with 9 red, helps you to account for cognitive bias in your estimates.

L’article complet est ici:

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